1. Colorado (R-Open Seat): Leans Democratic. Over the past 4 years, Colorado has shifted towards the Democrats. This Rocky Mountain State has recently added two new Democratic Congressman, a Democratic Senator and a Democratic Governor. Rep. Mark Udall’s prodigious war chest combined with the Convention boost make him the early favorite to win this seat.
2. Sen. John Sununu: The great wave of 2006 was the largest in the last Republican bastion in the Northeast. If thew voters of New Hampshire are willing to elect Carol Shea-Porter to Congress?. The Stonybrook Farms founder could be a formidable liberal in the nobles oblige type of Ted Kennedy and Jon Corzine.
3. Sen. Norm Coleman : Minnesota is a true swing state that is once again swinging Democratic after 8 years of movement towards the GOP. If R.T Rybak or Rep. McCollum runs, Coleman will lose. This race will be decided by candidate recruitment.
4. Sen. Susan Collins: We already have a candidate, Rep. Tom Allen, but Collins is a very savvy pol who has a 70% approval rating. This race will be a test of how far left the Northeast has moved.
5. Sen. Gordon Smith: Slight GOP lean. The last Republican Senator representing a state bordering the Pacific. Earl Blumenauer and Peter DeFazio probably won’t run because of their newly gained power in the House. Randall Edwards could be a strong candidate for Democrats.
6. Sen. Elizabeth Dole: Toss-up if Gov. Mike Easley runs, otherwise, this race has a solid GOP lean.
7. Easley would win 44 percent to 41 percent, according to a survey of 501 likely voters conducted Jan. 22 by Public Policy Polling of Raleigh. The difference is within the poll’s margin of sampling error of 4.3 percentage points.
8. Virginia/ Nebraska/ New Mexico, if any of the GOP incumbents in these states retire, Democrats have a good shot at picking up some of these seats.
Onto the Democrats.
1. Sen. Mary Landrieu: Leans GOP. Mary Landrieu previous winning percentages against third tier GOP candidates were 4% and 0%, respectively. She’s always been a controversial and polarizing l figure and her aggressive courting of Republican voters has alienated traditionally Democratic African Americans. Hurricane Katrina has displaced many of these voters and has created a skepticism of government among the remaining ones. Mayor Nagin and Bobby Jindal will actively work to undermine her bid for reelection. If she wins, it’s because of another inexplicable GOP recruiting failure.
2. Sen. Tim Johnson. If Mike Rounds runs, it’s competitive. Otherwise, six more years for Tim Johnson.
3. Sen. Tom Harkin. If Latham runs, then this race will be closer to Harkin’s victory over Rep. Lightfoot than his victory over Rep. Ganske. If Steve King runs, expect another blowout. Either way, Harkin will put another trophy of a Republican Congressman on his wall.
4. Sen. Mark Pryor: Likely Democratic. This race get interesting if Mike Huckabee is the nominee for the GOP. I still think Pryor wins because of his name, his moderate views and the absence of a GOP bench in Arkansas.
5. The rest? Barring retirements, they’re all shoe-ins.
The Senate races will come down to recruiting, the strength of each party’s national ticket, local factors and, of course, the War in Iraq.
Best scenario for Democrats : 57-41-2 Democratic Majority.
Best scenario for the GOP: 50-49-1. GOP Majority, but only if the GOP holds the Oval Office.
Republican Held:
Tossup: Colorado Open, Minnesota(Coleman), New Hampshire(Sununu)
Lean Republican: Maine(Collins), North Carolina(Dole), Oregon(Smith)
Republican Favored: Alabama(Sessions), Georgia(Chambliss), Kentucky(McConnell), Oklahoma(Inhofe), South Carolina(Graham), Texas(Cornyn)
Safe Repubican: Alaska(Stevens), Idaho(Craig), Kansas(Roberts), Mississippi(Cochran), Nebraska(Hagel), New Mexico(Domenichi), Tennessee(Alexander), Virginia(Warner), Wyoming(Enzi)
Democratic Held:
Tossup: Louisiana(Landrieu)
Lean Democratic: South Dakota(Johnson)
Democrat Favored: Arkansas(Pryor), Iowa(Harkin), Montana(Baucus), New Jersey(Lautenberg)
Safe Democratic: Delaware(Biden), Illinois(Durbin), Massachusetts(Kerry), Michigan(Levin), Rhode Island(Reed), West Virginia(Rockefeller)
Predictions:
Dems pick up Colorado, Minnesota, and New Hampshire while holding all of their own seats for a 54-46 majority, the same as what they held during the last two years of Reagan’s term.
could get beat by either AG Roy Cooper or or State Treasurer Richard Moore. She’s really not that popular, and her recent vote against the minimum wage and the resolution opposing a troop surge in Iraq give Democrats plenty of fodder. Now add her opposition to Stem cell research in a state that has a rapidly growing medical sector, and a state that still supports stem cell research overwhelmingly like the rest of nation. Those issues alone are enough to cost her the election.
Republican Held Seat.
Colorado- Leans Democratic. Open Seat. Republicans have a competive primary between McInnis(moderate)and Schaffer(conservative)- Democrats are united between Udall- who is a formidable candidate. The 2008 DNC convention is at Denver. CO is trending Democratic.
Minnesota- Tossup- Coleman’s 2002 victory was due to Liberal Democrats behaving badly at Paul Wellstone’s memorial service and strong GOP year. yet Coleman narrowly defeated Wellstone replacement candidate Ex VP Mondale. Due to the state Democratic leanings Coleman is likely to lose if Democrats avoid nominating Al Franken or Mike Hatch or Patty Wetterling. Best choices are Twins Citie Area Mayors Rybak and Coleman. lawyer Mike Ciresi, US Rep McCollum or Walz. Judi Dutcher.
New Hampshire- Tossup= similar to Minnesota- Sununu’s narrow victory in 2002- State is trending blue. Democrats just need to avoid nominating Katrina Swett.
Oregon- Leans Republican- Oregon is a blue state, Smith’s ideology is slightly to the right of the average Oregonian. Democrats need to nominate a top tier candidate- Ben Westlund.
Maine- Leans Republican- Vulnerable because Maine is a Blue state but Collins is extremely popular.
Vulnerable- OPEN Seats(Watch)
1)New Mexico-
2)Virginia
Watch- Macaca category
1)Alabama
2)Georgia
3)North Carolina
4)Oklahoma
5)Texas
The rest are safe
Democratic Seats
Lousiana- Republicans need a top tier candidate for Landrieu to lose.
South Dakota- if Johnson does not get well- the Democratic replacement will either be Stephanie Herseth or Tom Daschle. Republicans will either nominate Governor Mike Rounds- or Larry Pressler.
The rest are safe.
In the event that gov richardson’s presidential campaign comes to an early end, with any luck he’ll run for the senate seat, especially if the republican retires. he was re-elected in a sweep (albiet in a democratic year) and would easily have the name recognition. he’s already stated that he’s uninterested in the veep slot (though that might just be political claptrap) and a seat in the senate would enhance his already hefty resume for another run down the line.